Just ask the models, but do not dare ask any questions of the modelers or the input data. Here is a link to the simulator and model that is referenced https://covid19sim.org/
Simulators and models show thousands more will die. As I have mentioned, a few things drive me nuts here.
- Social distancing “flattens the curve” it does not stop the virus or immediately trend the curve down. See math and even 11 alive themselves last month. So how do they get away with publishing reduced mortality numbers? Why does no one ask? If you compare social distancing to any arbitrary closer date (7/30, 8/30) the numbers can be made to look better. But if you let both curves return to baseline, you end up in relatively the same place. But a spike is panic and a slow trickle of daily death is somehow more accepted. Accepted without question.
- The other, more dramatic curves never come back down. If we see a dramatic spike, we will also see a dramatic increase in immunity and antibodies and a faster return to normal. Again, focus the chart only in the near term so that it looks like the spike goes on to infinity. Do not show that the spike returns to normal long before the almost flat line of a lock down.
- They are never questioned. Never have to justify their predictions and numbers. Just show graphs and numbers and speak to your model. This has much to do with the fact the media folks are severely lacking in any math or science skills. I have dozens of questions and woudl love to talk for hours about the input data, the model, the techniques, assumptions et al…
But even simple and consistent questions should be asked of all models like… Does your model ignore the current immunity that we are now seeing in reports? Why does your model only show a new spike and ignore the current flattening and infection rates since; now; January? Does your model assume a return to a pre-COVID normal without the phased opening that everyone is talking about? AND the big one from above… If social distancing and lock downs flattens the curve, how does it then prevent death overall it seems you stopped your projections in August? These are not gotcha questions, they are legitimate questions to help the audience understand and any modeler [not out for political points] would have already had to have answered within the model itself.
The good side of this one is that we will know quickly how much we track to the low end, mid line or top of this curve. I appreciate the credentials of the schools involved. But education and study is not reality. These models, students and professors will learn from mistakes here and improve. In the meantime, garbage in; garbage out. And allowing the media to take math use it to panic (versus educate) the community.