What the GA models really say…

I decided to follow up on my own post and spend some time with the simulator and charts that are making so much news. https://analytics-tools.shinyapps.io/covid19simulator07/ First, if you see their actual charts you will see a third graph that no one is sharing. Lockdown to a full reopening if even better. So what do these

GA reopens and thousands more will die…

Just ask the models, but do not dare ask any questions of the modelers or the input data. Here is a link to the simulator and model that is referenced https://covid19sim.org/ https://www.thedailybeast.com/ending-coronavirus-lockdowns-in-mississippi-georgia-and-florida-could-doom-thousands https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid-19-simulator-sees-a-second-wave-of-cases-in-georgia/85-87a01943-e29c-46ac-962e-86642eb5b4ef Simulators and models show thousands more will die. As I have mentioned, a few things drive me nuts here. Social distancing “flattens

7 Things COVID-19 Has Taught Me

I was going to offer a pros and cons list, but upon reaching the first item I found it difficult to simply categorize these items in such black and white terms. This is a time for action, but also a time to understand the unique shades of grey. Which leads directly to item one. 1)

Revising models due to changing reality or just bad models?

I keep harping on the bad math within the COVID-19 reporting. But I guess it is the world in which we live. I do not blame the Mathematicians. In back offices, they are trying to build models to predict outcomes. The models are only as good as the data they are fed, and the current

MORE Bad Math and progress on COVID-19

This is a followup to the original bad math being used for the modelling of COVID-19. As noted by Dr. Fauci we could not predict with any certainty (or compare to the flu) due to a “denominator problem.” Since then, Dr. Fauci (the same one) has compared COVID-19 to the flu (stating it was 10x

Math versus Panic… Flu versus Coronavirus

First, let me say. Stay safe, wash your hands and avoid sick people. But I wanted to do some digging on the math, “the denominator problem” as Dr. Fauci stated. Lots of news organizations want to push the panic button. “ten times worse than the flu” and they jump all over it. But the same

Liberals and Math; not close friends

Bloomberg Could Have Given Each American $1 Million With Money He Spent https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/06/msnbcs_brian_williams_new_york_times_editorial_board_member_mara_gay_five_divided_by_three_equals_one_million.html Wow.. just … … wow. I get that the person originally posting may have been drinking or just outraged. But Brian Williams, his producer, the editors, the camera man, teleprompter ANY ONE can you do basic math? Millions/Millions… 1 over 1 ..

Trump CAN win California in 2020

Rush Limbaugh said that Trump should campaign in CA. Not because he can win it outright but to set the stage.  He is correct; but also wrong (sorry 98.6%). Trump can win CA easily and campaigning there is obviously and important step.  CA passed a law that all 55 of their electoral votes go to

Healthcare still the major weakness of Trump Administration

The GOP and President are failing on Healthcare as they did in 2018. If the GOP can take this issue from the left, they will have kicked the last leg from the Democrat stool. You cannot just talk big picture, protect preexisting conditions, cheaper etc. You need a plan. The left has plans. We may

Rush Limbaugh: How to define a legacy?

My father was diagnosed this year and had half a lung removed, radiation and the like. Talking politics and Limbaugh with him was a great distraction. Thanks for making that harder (sarcasm font). I am seriously saddened (or as Rush the Band said… I felt a shadow cross my heart). Nut not fully surprised based